Quick Answer
For Australian players seeking the best odds in online casinos, blackjack (with optimal strategy) offers the lowest house edge at around 0.5% to 1%, depending on the specific rules. However, video poker (e.g., Jacks or Better with a 9/6 paytable) can achieve a house edge as low as 0.46% when played perfectly. In terms of pure chance, baccarat (betting on the banker) has a house edge of about 1.06%, while craps (pass line bet) sits at 1.41%. Slots and keno typically have much worse odds (house edges of 5–15% or higher), so they are not recommended for players focused on maximising returns.
Understanding House Edge and Australian Regulations
The “best odds” in any casino game refer to the house edge—the mathematical advantage the casino holds over the player. A lower house edge means better odds for you. Under the Interactive Gambling Act 1997 (IGA), Australian-based online casinos are prohibited from offering “live” casino games (like roulette or blackjack) to Australian residents. However, many offshore operators provide these games, and Australian players access them at their own risk. The IGA does not criminalise players, but it does not offer consumer protections for offshore gambling. Always verify the legality and licensing of any site before playing.
Top Games with the Best Odds
Below is a breakdown of games ranked by house edge, from best to worst. Note that these figures assume perfect play and standard rules.
- Blackjack (with basic strategy): House edge 0.5%–1% (depending on rules like number of decks, dealer stands on soft 17, and doubling options). Using basic strategy reduces the house edge significantly. Avoid side bets (e.g., insurance), which often have edges over 10%.
- Video Poker (Jacks or Better, 9/6 paytable): House edge 0.46% when using optimal strategy. The “9/6” refers to 9 coins for a full house and 6 for a flush. Many online versions use worse paytables (e.g., 8/5), which increase the edge to 2–5%.
- Baccarat (Banker bet): House edge 1.06% (after 5% commission on banker wins). The player bet has a 1.24% edge, and tie bets should be avoided (over 14% edge).
- Craps (Pass Line / Don’t Pass): House edge 1.41% (pass line) or 1.36% (don’t pass). Craps offers many high-edge side bets (e.g., “hardways” with edges over 10%), so stick to the basic bets.
- Roulette (European single-zero): House edge 2.7%. American roulette (double zero) has a 5.26% edge—always choose European if available.
- Slots & Keno: House edges typically 5–15% or higher. Slots vary wildly; progressive jackpots often have worse odds. Keno can have edges exceeding 20%.
Why Blackjack and Video Poker Dominate
Blackjack and video poker are the only common casino games where player skill can reduce the house edge to near zero—or even gain an advantage (e.g., card counting in blackjack). However, card counting is difficult online due to automatic shuffling and RNGs. Video poker requires memorising strategy charts but is purely mathematical. For Australian players, many offshore casinos offer these games, but the IGA’s prohibition on “live” casino games means you’ll likely be playing against a random number generator (RNG), not a live dealer. RNGs are fair if properly audited, but lack the social element of live tables.
Factors That Impact Odds
Even within the same game, odds vary based on rules and paytables. For example:
- Blackjack: Games with fewer decks (e.g., single-deck) have better odds, but many online versions use 6–8 decks. Also, rules like “dealer stands on soft 17” (S17) vs “hits on soft 17” (H17) affect the edge by about 0.2%.
- Video Poker: The paytable is everything. A 9/6 Jacks or Better machine has a 99.54% return (0.46% house edge), while a 7/5 machine returns only 96.15% (3.85% house edge). Always check the paytable before playing.
- Roulette: European (single zero) is standard online. Avoid French roulette unless “La Partage” or “En Prison” rules apply, which further reduce the house edge to 1.35% on even-money bets.
Games to Avoid for Better Odds
Australian players should steer clear of games with inherently high house edges:
- Keno: Often has a house edge of 20–35%.
- Slots (pokies): While popular in Australia, online slots average 5–10% house edge. Progressive slots can be worse.
- Wheel of Fortune type games: House edges often exceed 10%.
- Side bets in blackjack or craps: These are designed to separate you from your money quickly.
Important Caveats for Australian Players
Under the IGA 1997, licensed Australian online casinos cannot offer “live” casino games (e.g., blackjack, roulette, baccarat) to residents. However, many offshore sites do offer them. If you choose to play at an offshore casino, be aware that:
- You have no legal recourse if the casino refuses to pay winnings.
- Australian banks may block transactions to unlicensed sites (though this is inconsistently enforced).
- Always check for RNG certification (e.g., eCOGRA, iTech Labs) to ensure fair odds.
- Games like poker (skill-based) and sports betting are legal in Australia under separate regulations, but are not covered here.
Key Takeaways for Australian Players
- Best odds: Blackjack (0.5–1% house edge) or video poker (0.46% with optimal play) are your top choices.
- Always check rules: In blackjack, look for S17, double on any two cards, and late surrender. In video poker, demand a 9/6 paytable.
- Avoid high-edge games: Slots, keno, and side bets have poor odds—treat them as entertainment, not strategy.
- IGA restrictions: Live dealer games are not available from Australian-licensed sites. Offshore play carries risks; ensure the site is reputable and uses certified RNGs.
- No game guarantees profit: Even with the best odds, the house always has a mathematical edge over time. Set a budget and play responsibly.
- Special mention: If you enjoy skill-based games, consider poker (legal in Australia) where you can have a statistical edge over opponents, not the house.